Forecasting national health coverage

The decision context

Enterprise planning required a view of how health coverage could shift across Medicaid, Medicare, employer coverage and individual plans. State Medicaid redetermination scenarios were part of that work.

My contribution

I developed national coverage forecasts and state Medicaid scenarios, modeling transitions between coverage segments, state differences and substitution effects.

The work connected coverage modeling with policy scenarios and strategic briefings.

Where the work was used

The national forecasts were used as baselines for the 2023 and 2024 investor conferences and in strategic briefings. State scenarios supported enterprise planning around Medicaid redeterminations.