sf.inkShane Francis
Research & advisoryContact
Federal baseline · 2026–2027Draft analysis

+$284.2B

Projected increase in U.S. health spending in 2027.

$6.02T → $6.30T +4.7% · CMS projection

Five largest expenditure categories $ billions · both years projected
  • Hospital care
  • Physician & clinical
  • Retail prescriptions
  • Nonmedical insurance
  • Other health & personal care
The five largest spending categories in 2026 and 2027CMS projections in current dollars. The five-category subtotal rises from 4.428 trillion dollars in 2026 to 4.651 trillion in 2027. Total national spending rises from 6.017 trillion to 6.302 trillion. Full values are in the federal baseline article.$0$1T$2T$3T$4T$5THospital care: $1,870.5B1,870.5Physician & clinical services: $1,244.5B1,244.5Retail prescription drugs: $561.5B561.5Nonmedical insurance expenditures: $376.9B376.9Other health, residential & personal care: $374.8B374.8$4.428T2026Hospital care: $1,950.1B1,950.1Physician & clinical services: $1,303.8B1,303.8Retail prescription drugs: $587.6B587.6Nonmedical insurance expenditures: $413.3B413.3Other health, residential & personal care: $396.3B396.3$4.651T2027

Stacks show the five-category subtotal: 73.8% of projected 2027 spending.

CMS Office of the Actuary · June 2026Read analysis →
Medical pharmacy · 2027Draft

Biologics, utilization and site of care

Research outline · spending forecast in development

Consulting

Forecasting, market sizing and research systems.

shane@simulacra.ink ↗