sf.inkShane Francis
Research & advisory
Contact

Carlsbad, California

Shane Francis

Healthcare economics, forecasting & applied AI.

I build coverage forecasts, market models and AI tools for health policy and product strategy. My experience spans UnitedHealth Group, state government and an independent software application.

Experience

Explore the work

Browse by organization or subject. Dates identify the role; specific project milestones are noted in each entry.

10 entries

National coverage forecasts

Developed national coverage forecasts used as baselines for the 2023 and 2024 investor conferences and strategic briefings.

Coverage modelingMedicaidScenario analysis
Methods & contribution : National coverage forecasts

Approach

Modeled transitions among Medicaid, Medicare, employer coverage and individual plans, including state differences and substitution effects.

Work produced

National coverage projections and state Medicaid redetermination scenarios for enterprise planning.

Read work brief →

Healthcare product market sizing

Built addressable, serviceable and obtainable-market models for healthcare products, including payment integrity, to support product strategy and client presentations.

Market sizingExcelPayment integrity
Methods & contribution : Healthcare product market sizing

Approach

Combined plan enrollment, per-member economics, survey findings and product constraints in Excel models.

Work produced

Market-opportunity estimates, product-strategy consultation models and client presentation materials. The models distinguished the total market from the portion reachable under product and contract constraints.

Healthcare AI product research

Led a four-person research team evaluating more than two dozen proposed healthcare AI products.

Research leadershipAI productsMarket assessment
Methods & contribution : Healthcare AI product research

Approach

Assessed addressable and obtainable markets across concepts in claims processing, data retrieval, clinical transcription and computer vision.

Work produced

Market assessments and executive presentations on coverage and policy trends for consultants, researchers and executives.

Product-sizing assistant in Teams

Built and deployed an Azure-based research assistant in Microsoft Teams for product-sizing questions from sales and growth teams.

Azure AI SearchPrompt FlowMicrosoft Teams
Methods & contribution : Product-sizing assistant in Teams

Approach

Connected a curated collection of product and market documents through Azure AI Search and Prompt Flow.

Work produced

A retrieval-based research application integrated into the product-sizing workflow and delivered through Microsoft Teams.

Payer and coverage dashboards

Designed Tableau dashboards for internal sales and product teams to examine payer enrollment and coverage-market dynamics.

TableauSQLQuarterly refreshes
Methods & contribution : Payer and coverage dashboards

Approach

Connected the dashboards to managed SQL data and maintained a quarterly refresh process.

Work produced

A recurring analytics resource covering payer enrollment and market changes for internal decision support.

Medicaid cost and caseload conferences

Established independent Medicaid cost and caseload conferences whose estimates informed state budget appropriations.

MedicaidForecastingStakeholder coordination
Methods & contribution : Medicaid cost and caseload conferences

Approach

Built forecasting methodology and data infrastructure, and worked through estimates with executive-branch stakeholders.

Work produced

A recurring estimating process connecting Medicaid cost and caseload projections with state budget appropriations.

Read work brief →

Healthcare legislation and fiscal notes

Produced and defended more than 30 fiscal notes on proposed healthcare legislation.

Fiscal analysisLegislative testimonyFederal funding
Methods & contribution : Healthcare legislation and fiscal notes

Approach

Analyzed Medicaid eligibility, provider reimbursement and occupational licensing; briefed legislators on enrollment, cost drivers and federal funding changes.

Work produced

Fiscal notes and legislative committee presentations during the federal Public Health Emergency.

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State health-benefit analysis

Modeled proposed health-benefit changes and investigated retiree drug-subsidy calculations.

Health benefitsEconomic modelingProcurement
Methods & contribution : State health-benefit analysis

Approach

Examined benefit scenarios involving travel surgery, telehealth and provider scope of practice.

Work produced

Benefit-cost models, stakeholder discussions and vendor-procurement work supporting subsidy appeals.

Simulacra.Ink

Develop and operate a creative-fiction application using language models, retrieval and persistent narrative memory.

LLM orchestrationReact / NodePostgreSQL
Methods & contribution : Simulacra.Ink

Approach

Build application interfaces and backend integrations with React, Node and PostgreSQL, including authentication, payments and model integrations.

Work produced

An operating creative-fiction application with ongoing product and engineering development.

Read work brief →Open project ↗

JohnHenry.ink

Designed a pilot comparing an expert working with AI against an autonomous agent, using shared context and anonymous human review.

AI evaluationExperimental designHuman review
Methods & contribution : JohnHenry.ink

Approach

The proposed comparison gives both approaches a shared brief and resources, with reviewers evaluating anonymous outputs.

Work produced

A published pilot protocol and illustrative review interface. The study is preparing its first round; no completed-study findings are claimed.

Open project ↗Read pilot protocol ↗

Continue the conversation

Economics, policy or applied AI?

Get in touch about my work.

shane@simulacra.ink ↗